Flour Milling Sector Faces Potential Shortage of Quality Raw Materials – Rodion Rybchynskyi

The availability of food-grade wheat and rye for Ukraine’s flour milling industry was the central theme of the address delivered by Rodion Rybchynskyi, Chairman of the Union Millers of Ukraine, at the Khlib.ua Conference.

According to him, the overall wheat harvest forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year stands at around 21 million tons, of which food-grade wheat is expected to account for 10.3 million tons. However, the volume of high-quality grain of classes 1–2, essential for producing bread-making flour, is projected at only 1.7 million tons.

“We can already see intensifying competition between processors and exporters for quality wheat, while farmers, having the ability to store grain for several years, are in no rush to sell. This dynamic poses risks to price stability and the affordability of flour and bakery products for consumers,” emphasized Rybchynskyi.

He also drew particular attention to the situation with rye. Domestic production does not fully cover Ukraine’s internal demand. In the 2025/26 marketing year, imports are expected to reach about 9,000 tons (compared to 1,600 tons in the previous season), indicating the emergence of a persistent raw material deficit.

“The current production structure and farmer behavior may further push flour prices upward. While the shortage of class 1–2 raw materials already defines the industry’s outlook, the broader issue of food grain availability poses direct risks to the nation’s food security,” Rybchynskyi stressed.